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Old 11-11-2020, 10:19 PM   #1
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I've gotta find new hiding spots for everything

for the move. That sucks. but when she finds out that the house is only worth half as much next year.(relative to gold) I'm really gonna rub it in as to what she SHOULD have bought. No tax on gold coins and they are easily moved, no fire insurance needed on them, either. :-) It's not going to be at all funny, tho, when the houses value is cut in half again (relative to gold) the follwoing year, that's going to be tragic, but maybe it will have taught her something.
 
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Old 11-12-2020, 07:24 AM   #2
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Spider hole getting crowded?
 
Old 11-12-2020, 08:52 AM   #3
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Spider hole, Doomsday Preppers
 
 
Old 11-12-2020, 09:05 AM   #4
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That guy was not wrapped in trash bags an garbage.
 
Old 11-12-2020, 09:30 AM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by boati View Post
for the move. That sucks. but when she finds out that the house is only worth half as much next year.(relative to gold) I'm really gonna rub it in as to what she SHOULD have bought. No tax on gold coins and they are easily moved, no fire insurance needed on them, either. :-) It's not going to be at all funny, tho, when the houses value is cut in half again (relative to gold) the follwoing year, that's going to be tragic, but maybe it will have taught her something.
What is your reason for thinking that house values will be cut in half relative to gold in 2021 and then cut in half again in 2022?

Do you mean that real estate will be down that much, or gold will be up that much?
 
Old 11-12-2020, 02:56 PM   #6
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That guy was not wrapped in trash bags an garbage.
lololol
 
Old 11-13-2020, 08:13 AM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by John in AR View Post
What is your reason for thinking that house values will be cut in half relative to gold in 2021 and then cut in half again in 2022?

Do you mean that real estate will be down that much, or gold will be up that much?
both. the reason i "think" so is that's what happened around 2008. And this time, the Fed can't cut rates and there's no faith in the dollar around the world, either. The really low priced housing here is being driven up in price by people fleeing CA and other ****holes, but when they have to stop giving out so much unemployment and the second wave of layoffs happens, due to corona and landlords can't keep on letting tenants live rent free, you'll see millions of homeless people everywhere. They can't spend their way out of this one. We're probably going to war someplace if Trump can't be saved by the Supremes. That's what failing govts always resort to, in an attempt to create jobs and distract people from all that's gone to hell.
 
Old 11-13-2020, 11:12 AM   #8
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both. the reason i "think" so is that's what happened around 2008..
Bummer. Was hoping for something substantive, but this isn't anywhere close to true. Fwiw, I'm no mathematical or financial genius, but I'm willing to learn. That's a key thing in life; keeping one's ego in check and accepting that we have a lot to learn. I only started watching this stuff intently probably 6-8 years ago, when I (finally) got serious about retirement planning and investments.

On the gold-to-house cost/price ratio thing, relative to 2008:
From 2007 to 2009, the price per ounce of gold went up right at 30%.
From 2007 to 2009, the average house price in the US went down 14%.

Clearest way to look at it is "how many ounces of gold would it take to buy the average house in America?"

2007 - right at 300 oz of gold for the average house.
2009 - right at 202 oz of gold for the same house.

That's nowhere near a 75% drop; it's 32.7%.


In certain longer time frames, you'd be close to right, but it's nowhere near what happened in any given one or two year period. The greatest two-year drop I'm aware of was 2004-2006; it dropped around 40%. If we look at a near decade-long chart it does what you say; a downward trend going from a peak in 2000 to the lowest valley in 2011; but that was following a very similar upward trend, running up in the years before that, getting back to its 1985 number once again in 2009. It bounces in both directions, but comes back.

Put another way - what do the years 1973, 1989, 1993, 2008, and 2016 all have in common? (Keep in mind that that represents every decade for the last half century.) It took 350 ounces of gold to buy the average house in America in each of those years. It always comes back.

Last edited by John in AR; 11-13-2020 at 11:16 AM. Reason: {edited due to typing '200' instead of '2000'}
 
Old 11-15-2020, 08:04 PM   #9
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gold went from $450 an oz in 2004 or so, to 1800 in 2011 or so. That's a 300% increase. Lots of places, housing fell in value almost 50%, in 1-2 year All it takes is for half of those things to occur at the same time and the result will be what i said. Everyone knows what Harris is, and that Biden wont last 90 days before she gets rid of him. The fed has shot their last arrow. The dollar will start dropping like a rock and the stock and housing markets will go with it. Even if trump does pull it out, nothing can save the dollar. Trump should never have agreed to the virus shut down. it's a disaster and power-mad pos like Harris can't wait to make everyone dependent upon and unable to fight her thugs.
 
Old 11-16-2020, 07:24 AM   #10
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You're absolutely right about the price of gold in 2004 and 2011, but that's over seven years, not two years. It's also cherry-picking statistics to fit a bias; using a time frame that only shows what we want to see. In this case, it's starting at the very beginning of the run-up and looking away when it was at its peak, right before correction. It ignores the 33% drop from 2011 to 2013, and the 45% drop by 2015.

Going back to the cost of housing relative to the cost of gold, this illustrates it better than I can verbally do so:


You're choosing to only look at the slide from 2004 to 2011, which does show what you say - an 80+ percent drop (albeit over seven years, not two).

If we choose to look only at the time frame of 1996-2002, we see that in an even shorter 6-year period it went UP nearly 140% and you're ignoring that.

From 2011 to 2014 it went up more than 80%, and you're ignoring that as well.


If we cherry-pick small pieces or ranges of data (as politicians do in gun control arguments), absolutely we can find a sample base that demonstrates what we want it to. But it's not only a mistake to do so, it's a self-defeating mistake because we build our beliefs on partial information that confirms our biases while ignoring the larger scope (or longer term) big picture that includes not only the things we like and want to see, but the things that we don't like but still NEED to see.

Last edited by John in AR; 11-16-2020 at 07:27 AM. Reason: {edited for typos}
 
Old 11-16-2020, 07:35 AM   #11
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this set up is going to be WORSE, John, as I've already explained. They can't spend their way out of this one. the entire world was not shut down do to stupidity over a virus for 2008. Now it IS. We had enough gold and enough suckers to buy our debt in 2008. Now, china is ruined as well, so they CANT buy our debt and they no longer wish to do so. So it's a very safe bet that we'll find some excuse to go to war, probably with Iran. that will kick the can down the road a couple more years (maybe). and that's all that they can do, before the collapse. gold's getting harder to find and extract, and more and more countries want/need more and more of it, to try to prop up faith in their currency. There's no doubt that the price of gold is going to go thru the roof. it's just a question of how soon and whether or not prices of other things match the increase both as to extent and timing. Obviously I think other things will lag the increase of gold price, which gives me a window of opportunity to stock up on the other things. (mostly food) and get them buried.
 
Old 11-16-2020, 09:28 AM   #12
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?????

You started with 'because that's what happened in 2008', which is simply untrue. So now that your claim is shown as untrue, you default to "well, this time will be different". Got it.

My point is simple and historically documentable. There is no one-way constant spike or one-way constant plummet. It goes up, then it goes down, then it goes up, then it goes down. Again - in what year did it take US dollars equaling 350 oz of gold to buy the average house in america? It was in 2016, but that was nothing new because it also was true in 2008. And that was nothing new because it had also happened in 1993. And that wasn't anything new because it was true in 1989. And that wasn't unique because it was also true in 1973. That's every decade since Richard Nixon was in office. And if our chart went back further in history, I suspect we'd continue to see the same rolling, repeating pattern.


As far as having a catastrophic outlook on the near future, I'm as annoyed & worried about this election as anyone, but (again) look at history. I'm a conservative and I survived Obama, I survived Clinton, I survived Carter, I survived LBJ, and I survived Kennedy.

If another person my age were a liberal/socialist, the same reality holds true for them, even on the opposite end of the political spectrum. They survived Trump, they survived Bush (both of them), they survived Reagan, they survived Ford & Nixon, and they survived Eisenhower.

Politicians can absolutely affect our lives, but the simple fact is that what we do ourselves affects the outcome of our lives a lot more than the actions of politicians affect our lives. To paraphrase Dave Ramsey, "what happens in your house is a lot more important that what happen in the white house".

Life goes on, even with problems, and we need to be grownups and deal with adversity without giving in to emotion and emotion-based reactions. Simply put, deal with life as it is and quit looking for some end-of-the-world Mad Max fantasy to give you a free 'shuffling of the deck'. Because it's not going to happen. It's never happened in the history of the world. So find a way to deal with reality as it is, rather than simply and constantly defaulting back to "well, this time will be different so buckle up for the coming global apocalypse". Because it's never different. It's cyclical & changing, and being cyclical means it keeps coming back around time after time. As the man said, there is no new thing under the sun.
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