vaguard

I'm just about to turn 40 and the talk about a SHTF scenario has just gone through the roof over the past two years. I have people actively telling me that they expect something within 2 years. The Mayan calendar has nothing to do with their suggestions as they tell me they are seeing political and economic data that is telling them that it's soon. You guys think something is close?

Unalist

Nationwide or international predictable SHTF, no. I'd even bet on it.

Rich Z

Well, there MUST be a reason that all governments seem to be spending money like there is no tomorrow. So maybe they KNOW there is no tomorrow....

12XLR8

Hey Rich it's been awhile!
Vaguard that's an excellent question.
does china have a stealth jet? well if so then it might be soon.

SciuirseMorrigna

I don't worry about it.

If it happens and I'm not prepared, I'm screwed.

Chances are, if it happens and I am prepared, I'm screwed anyway.

Stuff has happened beyond my control over the last 3 years that's burnt me down to nothing. If I wasn't prepared before, I would not have made it. Now, about all I've kept is my computer, a mattress on the floor, a duffle bag of clothes, a pack of camping/survival gear that I live out of and my killing guns.

There's nothing I can do about it in the near future, so if it happens, I'll just have to be one of the "bad guys" because that's where I've been placed.

gripper

I know the felling well...it seems like they( the PTB) are not only actively trying to record those they deem "bar",probitied;or disqualified"in greater numbers than ever;but are actively striving to redefine that those terms so there is a HUGE numbe rof people lockd ou tof not only the RKBA,but financial security/independence,occupations,freedom of travel and communication...their "brave new world" is a stratified/hierarchal society-a neo feudalist/corporate socialist state where the "haves" are those deemed acceptable and the "have nots" are permanently locked out of anything but constant surveillance and control...
Like I always say "the only reason the gov't constantly demands that there ought to be [new]law,is that not enough of u swere breaking th eold ones".....and YES,I agree with Ayn Rand on that..

gunner

I think it's possible in the next few years and would guess in my life will probably happen. The largest factors I would consider include a highly politically divided country with a growing number of loud 3rd party (smaller government people) as well as international and domestic financial instability.

It seems, at least to me, that a far greater number of people trust the government far less than in the past. This lack of trust/fear, paired with potential financial collapse (as we're starting to see in Europe), and the politically charged rhetoric will end up being a powder keg full of "SHTF."

The rhetoric can be toned down, but the lack of trust and unsustainable financial situation we (and many other countries) find ourselves in will not be simple fixes... and I don't think the people in DC are either willing or smart enough to make the fixes needed (as they would be so very unpopular), which will eventually result in disaster.

gripper

The real danger is being provked into premature direct action.....watch out for "new friends" who want to "do something".

Aslan

being prepared is like insurance - you're not planning on something bad happening, your planning for IF something bad happens.

My crystal ball is broken (just look at my vast lottery losses). However, a couple bucks here and there for something that may never happen is nothing compared to the cost of not doing anything and having the worst come about.

YMMV

AustDeathMachine

MNost of my preps and practice envolve stuff I do for fun anyway. Like shooting and backpacking so not much lost there.

Rich Z

Seriously a LOT of the problems for government would just go away if a large part of the population (via their selection) were to just "go away". Particularly all of the "baby boomers" preparing to collect on social security benefits.

A lot of the more "speculative" websites have been talking about the corexit/oil spill/blue plague issue in the Gulf of Mexico and the apparent cover-up by our government as being something meaningful. If you stop to think of the demographics of the population found most thickly along the gulf coast and particularly within Florida, it does kind of make you think, "Hmmmmm.....".

Along the same lines, you do have to think about what would be in it for the government if an actual cure for cancer was ever truly discovered. What age bracket is most commonly killed off by cancer? Pretty helacious to think that of our government, but really, would you put that past them?

SciuirseMorrigna

Well, with the current in-progress meltdown in Egypt, we may be a bit closer.

DJetAce

If you lived in Egypt or Algeria I'd say SHTF is happening RIGHT NOW.

And if you lived in the rust belt in Obamavilles I'd say you are in a slow-mo SHTF.

But for the rest of us Munchkins I'd say it might take a while, long while, before that happens (but if you are in California I'd start packing... just in case.)

Glenn Bartley

SHTF may be a lot closer than we think. If the Egyptian government falls, well - we have no idea what will take its place. If it is a government that is affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood, or backed by Iran or Syria - we can kiss Israel goodbye, we can kiss the Suez Canal goodbye and we would happily welcome $100 barrels of oil because $150 or higher would not be far fetched under that scenario. You can bet that would bring SHTF here.

grumpysfc

More than just Egypt is involved, much of that region is unstable at the moment. Tunisia is still trying to sort itself out. Lebanon just had Hezbollah move into power, pushing Hariri out. Iran isn't the most stable place at the moment, they are trying to control the population while destabilizing other countries. Where the meltdown in that region may effect us is oil production and gas prices. If prices skyrocket, maybe our Government will finally realize it will take a combination of energy production, more efficient use of energy and innovative ideas to reduce the influence of that region on our economy.

Rich Z

I think realistically the US government could cut the apron strings at any time for crude oil sources overseas. But as one person once said to me, "Why should we use OUR oil all up right now? We'll keep buying theirs till they run out, then WE still have ours left to use."

Seriously, have you SEEN how many oil wells are just offshore of Louisiana and Texas in the Gulf of Mexico? Just that one oil blowout this summer was putting out HOW many barrels?

SciuirseMorrigna

Yep, for some reason people won't believe it. We have more oil than the whole middle east right under our feet. All we need to do is tell the green weenies to go F- themselves, and start pumping.

Want to conserve our oil? Stop the oil burner power plants and go nuclear. It's cleaner, safer, and more efficient. The other major use of petroleum is plastics. Transportation is not a big deal, take all the cars in all the world off the road and you only reduce oil consumption 3%.

As always, we could have it good if it weren't for those with an Agenda.

12XLR8

And our Gas price here is $3.77 a gallon. What a rip off !! someone is getting rich

12XLR8

http://armslocker.com/attachment.php...1&d=1296623881


gas price as of today 1639hrs.

12XLR8

How does those prices compare to where you live?
Thanks for your in put

jasper

I work for a very large pharma company and I can tell you there is more money in treatments than cures....

7of7

that is why we will never have a cure for cancer..

vaguard

Man ain't that the truth. I have arthritis and started taken Hydrocodone for the pain, before I knew it I was at 5 a day. Now I am down to one and soon (next 3 days) will be off of it permanently. I would rather deal with the pain than be addicted to a drug and that is exactly what that stuff does. I know they could find something far better to handle pain but why when you can get your customers hooked on your product. We have schemers and thieves in the White House, Senate, House, Judges, States, business... I guess that just puts it out in the open as SHTF is already here and all around us.

I personally don't feel that there is any way short of a revolution that would change our current economic and social structure. As someone said to me, we are not free and if you doubt it then answer why we have so many federal agencies that oppress the citizenry (ie IRS, ATF, DHS, FBI, CIA).

Ausi Hunta

On equivalent, we are paying around $5.30 US per gallon for petrol here in Aus
No wonder nobody can afford to run a damn 6 litre V8 anymore!

It's sitting between $1.30 per litre, and rising as high as $1.45
and its 3.79 litres to the gallon

This is including all the government subsidies on petrol, I think it's about time Aus moved to LPG asap :S 50 - 60 cents per litre is a fair whack cheaper, especially since we have vast resources off the western coast.

12XLR8

And I thought we were having it bad! I guess soon we'll be paying the same as you Ausi Hunta. Thanks for the reply!

12XLR8

BTW How are you holding up with that huge cyclone Ausi? hope every thing is alright!

Ausi Hunta

thanks mate everythings cool down here, its a damn miracle but nobody died! The government can't believe it, and 3 babies were born in shelters during the cyclone. It was one hell of a beast, made it all the way to alice springs (dead red center of aus) Even down in the deep south east, in the middle of summer we are getting crazy amounts of tropical rain, pushed south by the cyclone.

Apparently winds got up to around 300km p/hour +, so lots of missing roofs. The real damage wasn't caused by the devestating speeds though, more by the fact that a cyclone the size of Katrina took travelled at 25km p/h, so they got pummelled for around 20 hours. We have lost about 75% of the nations banana plantations, but apart from all the snapped trees we did incredibly well! Funny how two weeks after Queensland had become a disaster zone from floods the size of Europe, they get a category 5 :P Oh well, gotta take what you're given I guess... Anyways, they reckon power will be up again in about 6 weeks, and water is being trucked in. Time for a huge new tax to pay for everything :P

gunner

Glad to hear you're all right and that there were no deaths... that's incredible actually.

Ausi Hunta

Yeah the government thought so too! The people up there were blessed with some damn lucky circumstances, namely the storm surges occured at low tide Otherwise Cairns and the rest would be completely devestated. Thanks, btw, for noticing 12XLR8, I'm pretty surprised, you're from the USA right?

12XLR8

I'm glad every one made it out alright! 6 weeks till power is restored? wow that's a long time I hope you folks have a portabe generator! And yes I'm in USA way down in Hawaii where the weather is great but the cost of living is hell!

Ausi Hunta

Nice, sounds like paradise, just once you make it to the beaches Does Hawaii have tight gun laws? Yeah 6 weeks is a while, but only 400,000 people live there, it's not a major issue. A bigger problem will be getting them food and water seeing that the floods just keep coming back. I swear Australia is the only country that can be half underwater, and the other half on fire, at the same time Oh well, there are some upsides, got a street, got a pool!

12XLR8

Yeah Hawaii has one of the most strickest gun laws. We got the 14 day waiting period, NO CCW well for us normal citizens. Hopefully your government gets them what they need asap!

Ausi Hunta

yeah hopefully Damn thats s**t, do u need a licence?

12XLR8

hawaii is a may isue state but according to a article in a book ( if I read correctly ) from 1991-2006 NO ccw permit was granted to us citizens. It was written that Hawaii is one of the worst may issue state. I guess they believe an armed state is harder to control.

12XLR8

check our news here www.staradvertiser.com

There's getting more armed robberies and home invasions but still they don't issue CCWs . What will it take so we can protect our loved ones?

jasper

How is it for keeping a pistol in your home? How do you go out to practice?

12XLR8

We can own a weapon but can't carry a CCW unless you're in law enforcement. Going to and from the range pistol must not be loaded, ammo, mags, and pistol must be separated.

Ausi Hunta

sounds similar to here, cept before you can buy a handgun you need to have 6 months shooting experience with a handgun licence, which is extremely hard to obtain let alone keep :P

DJetAce

Well where I live in TEXAS you can keep your handgun in the car, concealed, without a CCW(or shotgun or rifle.) No registration, no waiting periods, no magazine bans or 'evil rifle' bans. CHLs are shall-issue and they ARE issued. Half of my work colleages are shooters to.

So I guess I'm ok.

Glenn Bartley

So, trying to get back to the original subject of how close are we to SHTF:

We may be much closer than many think with the continued strife in Egypt and with the ineptness of the Obama Administration which keeps screwing up on the diplomatic front. It has been reported that the king of Saudi Arabia was furious with President Obama for how poorly he is handling it and due to his absolute disrespect for President Mubarak. Regardless of how well our president is handling it or not, the fact is that Egypt is close to a revolution if not already embroiled in one of sorts already. A violent overthrow of the Egyptian government could result in closure of the Suez Canal. If that happens, and if it stays closed long enough to badly disrupt world trade in oil and other commodities our country, along with many others, could be brought to its knees or be forced to go to war. Such war would not likely be like Iraq or Afghanistan but more like Armageddon since it would likely be a world war. The tension in the region has already effected precious metal and oil prices because of the anxiety is has created. In fact, we may be closer to TEOTWAWKI than to simply the SHTF. Pray that the canal does not shut down. If it is shut down then pray it gets reopened soon. I am hopeful that there will be a resolution to the problems over there that will not include a takeover of the government by Islamic extremists but am fairly certain that there will be a radical change in the government and that could wind up in our favor or against us.

If the Suez Canal is shut down, for any lengthy period, I would guess over three months, we will see prices of everything from food to clothing to oil to ammo sky rocket. That canal being open has an extreme effect on the global economy that some may not realize. It was closed for about 8 yeas from 1967 through 1975. I remember that Nixon implemented price and wage controls and that we had gasoline rationing in this country in part of the early seventies. All too often the effect of the canal closure for all those years is overlooked when discussing US economy back then. The truth is that trade for many countries fell off by about 15 to 20% (http://www.voxeu.com/index.php?q=node/4428). This most certainly had an effect on every nations' economies. At least back then, it seemed that the US government had a good idea as to the strategic and economic importance of the canal. Today's administration does not seem to have a clue and is acting as if another closure of the canal is impossible.

All the best,
Glenn B